By Anand James
There were two dominant events last week Come from Sports betting site VPbet . One, the continuation of the uptrend that ensured six consecutive days of opening or closing higher, thereby exceeding our week’s target of 22400. Two, extreme volatility, especially on the weekly expiry day, shook off both bulls and bears off the ride. But by the end of Friday, VIX had eased, allowing a push above both 20-day and 50-day SMA. Hence, despite showing several signs of distribution at the Fibonacci extension figure of 22460, we are open to the extension idea in uptrend to the upper extreme of the Bollinger band at 22734. What worries us is how far we are from pivots, which requires a rapid fall in VIX as well as an equally rapid rise to our target. Otherwise, reversion pressures will get stronger. Towards this end, we will begin the week with an aggressive downside marker at 22417. In the event of a slippage past the same, 22227 may step in to offer a bounce. Chances of a collapse appear low but may be entertained if below 22054.
Bank Nifty eyes 48800
Our cautious approach last week, limiting the upside objective to 48050 was vindicated, as the rate of rise remained muted all through the week, and it required a strong push on Friday to breach and close above our target. But, despite this, and unlike Nifty, the 20- and 50-day SMAs continue to hover above acting as stiff resistances. However, we take confidence from the 4hr close above a week-long consolidation band, encouraging us to look for a rapid rise to 48800. Alternatively, slippage past 47935 could weaken the upsides, but we will wait for a break below 47700 to completely abandon the upside prospects.
Realty to extend upside in near term but sustainability doubted
The Realty index gained more than 6% this week led by strong gains in Macrotech, Oberoirlty, Godrej Properties, Phoenix, and Prestige. DLF, which forms around 36% of the Index, didn’t contribute much to the week’s upside. Technically, the index looks to be slowing down with 70% of the stocks nearing an overbought region, the 14-month RSI of the index above 85 and MACD in the monthly time frame signalling exhaustion. All this points towards the fact that stocks may be moving into the supply zone sooner rather than later. In the extremely short term, we may see the Index moving towards 1,060 levels possibly led by DLF. However, positivity is expected to fizzle out shortly ahead. Oberoirlty, Prestige and Brigade are the other stocks favoured to support the index.
WhatsApp Business updates policy to allow real money gaming ads in India Turbulent times! Boeing’s downward spiral – A legacy tarnished beyond repair Through the Looking-Glass: The Future of Marketing and Branding with Generative AI: What’s a decade ahead of us! Earth Overshoot Day: The role of marketing in driving a mindset change towards a more sustainable future
Metals not done yet
The Metal index was one of our picks last week, and we see a continuation of the 6% gain seen last week. In the daily time frame, we have seen range breakout and MACD signal breakout favouring upside. We expect the index to move towards 9777-10025, with the RSI of 66% of the index stocks fairly placed in the 50-57 range, supporting the next leg of upside. Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel, APL Apollo, and Hindalco are best placed to participate in such a move while Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta look exhausted.
(Disclaimer: Anand James is the Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. Views, recommendations, opinions expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Readers are advised to consult qualified financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.)